Saturday, December 15, 2018
Home > Indic Talks > Changing Religious Demographic Contours of India — A Talk by Dr. JK Bajaj

Changing Religious Demographic Contours of India — A Talk by Dr. JK Bajaj

Namaskaar to all of you in lieu of a prayer Mangalaacharan.

I’ll show you this a map of India within its neighborhood, within her neighborhood. This is a very interesting map so as you can see, this is this is our India, this area and if you look behind you have this huge unimaginably wide wall of Himalayas which covers India from three sides and below that there are vast expanses of ocean, this part is almost uncrossable, and there are some passes in this region, from where most of the most of the, invaders of past about whom we talk too much tried to enter India. But these passes were always defended when India was in was well functioning, these passes were all always well defending elevation will be somewhat lowered in this side also, but this area it’s impossible to cross through because the rains are so heavy and the forests are so thick there wouldn’t have been a possibility to for there have been not any people coming from this side into India is only from this passes here somewhere that people could enter India from Alexander onwards but and till the advent of modern shipping it would have been impossible for somebody to think of invading India from the sea.

So it’s the country is created like a fortress, naturally created like a fortress. I won’t emphasize this because in our school texts we we keep teaching as if this country was open all the time to invasions from outside. It was physically impossible, literally impossible for too many outsiders to enter this fortress. In fact there are some geography books of the early twentieth late nineteenth century which we can say that India from its geographical position is like an island with the dimensions of a subcontinent is that isolated from the rest of the land masses in the world within this, if you look at this map there is elevation, hardly ever rises very much that is almost below the Himalayas is all Plains except for some low mountains of the Central India, there is really no no big physical barrier that separates this Akhand Bharat, the whole of India is not separated by any natural barrier. It is all connected in fact taking a train from Delhi to Chennai, you’ll see that, as if you’re all the time passing except when you pass through the forests of the central India, it’s as if you are all the time passing through a fertile plain.

This man has impressed geographers that there’s one who writes that when you look at the map of India, you find this. It looks like that this old man Himalaya is an old aged man is holding its daughter in this outstretched arms and all that kind of similes has always been given about the relationship between Himalayas and this country and that relationship is very interesting one of the things geologists says that, that this Himalayas. Of course, as you can see, this is the northern boundary of India and so it is as much of India as of Tibet or China. But what they say is that the bounty of Himalaya is all reserved for Indians that all the water that falls on the northern or southern slopes of the Himalayas is all flows into India. The other side is a desert. That’s there. So it’s a very interesting land that has been given to us.

This is the map of the of the cultivable area of India and as you can see that almost all of India is seems potentially cultivable, leave out this Thar in little and the Himalayas. There is no part of India which is not cultivable and that is why there is no part of India where life is not possible. Then most other countries will be one corner which should be cultivable. So there will be hinterland (agricultural) and there will be the civilizational small region. But India is, because all of it is cultivable all of it is fertile, is all of its the center of civilization, It’s not there is some one, part which is civilized and it’s civilized. Thus it is geographically not like that.

There are other very important parts of aspects of the geography of India which some of it should be always teaching to our children. One of them, let me point out, is that India is a land where almost everywhere the plants can grow, throughout the year because  there is sunlight throughout the year. Both other countries, geographers count that in a year how many days are the days of sunlight and how many days in a year the plants can grow, the crops can grow. In India you don’t have to count it. It is everywhere almost the whole year, is the year of life the year of growth.

I’ve given some figures here that in what is now India is the geographical area is 329 out of which 170 million hectare (Satraa Karod) hectare is cultivated cultivable and if you take whole of India including what is now Pakistan and Bangladesh, then out of 423 million hectares, 210 which is means about 50 percent of Indian lands are cultivable, which number you will not find anywhere, in any land large landmass. It’s just not possible.

China, it’s 956 million hectares much vaster than India, but the cultivatable area will be only 122 million acres, USA is 983 and cultivable area will be only 154, Russian Federation is 1710 million hectares, cultivable area will be 124 and these are the land masses with which India can be compared. It cannot be compared with any other. There’s no other land which is larger than this, which is large enough to be compared with India and amongst these, India has the largest. So the geographers used to say that the area of Indian Union is probably 5th or 6th area of India, not Indian union is probably 5th or 6th in the world, But in terms of its prosperity, in terms of its wealth, it is not 5th or 6th, it is amongst the top most in the world.

Now this is the prosperity which is given to us. What we make of it at any given time is what we do with it. But in most of history Indian people have taken this bounty very gratefully and have worked with it very well too. For most of history India would have remained the most prosperous, most wealthy country of the world and that can be, that is something which is not hyperbole because in numbers it can be established because you have such uniformity of geography and you have such prosperity within an isolated geographical region it is natural that a uniform intense culture will develop there and this has always been noticed by scholars who came to India that India is a very special civilization, very special culture which is different than anybody else and which is also uniform across the country.

So I’ll quote only one of the major demographers of our times. This is a quote from Kingsley Davis of not very old, 1951. Kingsley Davis is considered the first demographer, first modern demographer of this region, is very important demographer. In Los Angeles, he was writing about the demography of India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. That time there was no Bangladesh, when he wrote this book India and Pakistan, he says that, I just read it out, Indian ideas and institutions taken as a whole resemble those of no other people. They have a peculiar shape and flavor of their own. They have tended to transform and absorb any foreign elements that tickled into the region, for India, though politically conquered by outsiders, was never culturally conquered this peculiar culture, has to some degree penetrated and pervaded nearly every part of what is geographically India. It has everywhere been affected by local indigenous variations, but neither the geographical nor the social barriers inside the subcontinent have been sufficient to prevent the widespread diffusion of a common basic culture with despite great variations is peculiar to India.

This was the experience almost of every great scholar every traveler who came to India that day, that they have come to a different land which is separate from others and which is from the beginning to the end, that they walked through everywhere is the same as inference. There may be people wearing different different clothes wearing, eating different food. But everywhere you can sense that you are in India and not anywhere else. I think this what I have quoted may have been the last coat of this kind of a scholar because after 50s 60s we tried to create an image reference as if India is a very disparate land, where only heterogeneity matters and the homogeneity of this country is not important at all. That’s what we started emphasizing and the foreigners also started doing this.

There is, of course, everybody knows if this is such a large landmass there will be heterogeneity, there will be peculiarities of different regions, people different areas will have different language. But all that is, happening within an overarching homogeneity that understanding which even the foreigners always felt and we always do has somehow been lost in our modern education in our modern period of India.  It perhaps was persisted up to my feeling is, if Kingsley Davis could write in 1951, it will be persisting at least up to independence, and this uniqueness that people are talking about is anchored in what we know is Sanatana Dharma, that Dharma which is inborn within Indian land, even all the Indians, even those who came to India from outside have tended to follow it.

The few foreigners that crossed into India from Alexander of Macedonia onwards have always marveled at the natural richness and civilizational homogeneity, you read Aryan. Once again the campaigns of Alexander, the kind of homogeneity kind of specialness about India that Aryan is ascribing is worth reading and many of those who came from outside soon merged into the homogeneous Indian civilizational milieu. Many of them who were the most successful became great devotees of Sanatana Dharma and took Sanatana Dharma beyond the given boundaries of we can name, names and so it is our understanding that this homogeneity persistent till the Islamic rule was established in the heart of India in 1192.

1192 can just be defined as the as the year in which the homogeneity broke when Prithvi Raj Chauhan lost and Islamic rule was is able to establish itself, in the heart of India at Delhi and they were perhaps the first rulers first people who came from outside who were intent on keeping a separate identity that all others merged with the milieu people, who came, but this was a group that resisted acculturation almost dogmatically and this group became the first source of heterogeneity in India. After they were about to leave or they’re about to be subordinated.

The British came and British through their patronage and propagation of Christianity created a second source of heterogeneity in India, but more than Christianity they added to the heterogeneity by suppressing and negating the civilizational homogeneity of India. It, they began teaching us that this homogeneity is fake, it is heterogeneity which defines India and we believed them and I think the larger contribution or larger error of the British in India is not so much the International Christianity, which we has been contained to a large extent as we will see.

But the fact that they instilled skepticism about the efficacy and truth and uniqueness of Indian civilization amongst us in the Indians. So this is by way of introduction because in India we always place any any work that we do in the space and time where we are doing that work. So this is the space and time about which the figures that will follow belong to while looking at the figures of demographic figures of India. We have divided the Indian population to three large groups one is Christians the Muslims and the all the rest we are calling Indian Religionists. We have had trouble with that term, but this has largely become now accepted the world over. This term, Indian religionists, this means the religion, people belonging to religion that were born in India, that were took root in India, as against religions which came from outside and this will include of course Buddhists and the Hindu, Jains, Hindus, Buddhists, Jains and almost all of the tribal, what we call as the tribal religions and the Sikhs.

This religious profile of India which includes the Pakistan and Bangladesh, India which was till 47 from 1881 to 2011 and if you look at it, in 1881 what we are calling Indian religionists formed 79 percent of the population. They have been declining continuously and now they form in 2011 the number is 67.25 percent from here to here. The decline is of 12 percentage points correspondingly the Muslims have gone up from being less than 20 percent to nearly 31 percent which is a rise of about 11 percentage points and the Christians have gone up from being less than 1 percent to around 2 percent. Now I think if you want to know about what has happened to India, then this one table is enough that in these 130 years of modernity the mainstream civilizational group of this country has declined. Its share has lost its share by 12 percentage points this is a very unusual happening anywhere in the world well has happened in recent times in parts of Africa but that will talk about some other time that it’s not comparable to what has happened here.

If I just to give you how big this figure is at the time of Jehangir, it is said and Jehangir himself quoting his father says this that the percentage of Muslims in India at that time in India which came under their rule, which was not all of India ever at that time, was no more than one in six which will be around 16 percent and to arrive that figure of 16 percent Muslims it had taken them at least five hundred years from the time of the defeat of Prithvi Raj Chauhan to Jehangir is already nearly 500 years, it took five centuries of medieval period to reduce the Hindu population by 16 percentage points, it has taken just about a century of modernity to reduce the share of Indian religious population in India by 13 percentage points 12 percentage points. It’s a very large, very major change and it is a continuing change, you see that between 1881 to 1941 the decline is from 79 to 74 and from 51 to 2011 the decline is of another 7 percentage points it’s is actually rising decline rather than restricting decline. That’s what is happening and because we looked at it we just simple mindedly not as a as proof we did a simple-minded extrapolation that since we have these 13 points of data on the share of Indian Religionists and of others if we extrapolate it we have done it with every census we have been doing it. It always comes that around 2061-71 in the Indian region not in the India that we had that we politically all today but the Indian region including Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indian Religionists will become a minority and this extrapolation may not be very good and is not how the demographers do these things.

But if you look at the data systematically this seems very reasonable presumption to make that if not in 2061 maybe 2071 maybe 2081 but within a foreseeable future in the undivided India Indian Religionists are going to become a minority that is if no major catastrophe occurs because as we will see there are parts of India where the Muslims and Christians have acquired very high presence and if those parts, that phenomena becomes faster. Then this may become come nearer. So this is one I think most important thing. I want you to concentrate on that this. India that we know has lost Indian Religionists in this area have lost 12 percentage points of their share in the census period census starts from 1881 and it is coming now if I look at these two three units into which India has been broken in Indian Union there were 87 percent nearly Indian Religionists in 1901 and at the time of partition just before the partition census was done they had come down to
84 percent about 3 percentage points they lost this when partition took place there was this large-scale transfer of populations so the share of Indian Religionists in what is now India became
87 percent and after that it has been quickly and steadily declining it is now 83 percent which is less than what it was before partition.

So as far as this remaining India is concerned whatever were the gains of partitions of the transfer of population they have been already neutralized it’s not that it will happen in future if they were already neutralized in 2001 so within this if we look from 51 to 2001 within this the Muslim has gone from to 14.23 percent and if we can notice the much of this rise is in the last after 1981 there’s something happening after 1981 that the rise in Muslims becomes much higher than what it was there was I think that that effect of partition persisted for the beginning two three decades and after that the community has become as virile as as vital as it was before partition but let me look at the other two countries also in Pakistan there were 16 percent Indian Religionists and in 1901 they had become 20 percent in 1941 before the partition this increase this increases there and this is the only region where Hindus and sikhs were rising compared to the Muslims and part of the reason is that the British I decided that anything they do with the agricultural irrigation they will do in West Punjab and not in East Punjab they’ll do it in in Pakistan and for catering to that increased irrigation large number of sikhs and Hindus were moved to those areas and after partition this was reduced to percent.

This is like zero because these numbers are immaterial discounts not matter and it has remained around that figure throughout after that so as far as Pakistan is concerned it is out of bounds for the Indian Religiousness now there this area no more belongs to them if you look at Bangladesh there were 34 percent in 1901 the Indian Religionists there they were a little less than 30 percent and 30 percent is a large number in 41 and in 51 they got reduced to 23 percent so the expulsion from Bangladesh part of Pakistan was not as total as it was from the West Pakistan part of Pakistan we know the reasons we know the history of this but after 51 this 23 percent
has been continuously systematically expelled from from Bangladesh and the latest figure is now 9.3 percent in 2011 this again is a very big change to happen in peacetime this is  not partition this is not war that in this small country of Bangladesh some group of people who formed 23 percent of the population have now are now forming less than 10 percent my personal understanding is that it will happen to any other people in any other part of the world it would have been the scandal of the world but this is something that the world doesn’t talk about and we also don’t talk about much but this is not a small thing to happen now over time maybe another two decades in another three decades in Bangladesh then the situation will be very similar to what happened in Pakistan.

It happened in one go here, it is happened over 40 50 60 as but it will happen. So, Pakistan and Bangladesh both are the regions which are out of bounds for the mainstream civilizational people of what is India from this onwards. I am talking only about the India that’s left the Indian Union, I normally call it and these are the growth rates of different communities in the Indian Union after 51. so Indian Religionists grew 21% in the first decade if their rate of growth started kept on increasing a little became 24% that was the maximum in 71 81. And, from 71 81 there has been systematic decline now it is only is less than 17 percent the rate of growth of of Indian Religionists in Indian Union. in fact we talked a lot about Indian population becoming too much in the 60s and 70s. much was wrong, but the figures indicate that there was growth in the first three decades and after that the rates of growth had started coming down. Muslims they grew 24 percent in the first decade 31 percent the second 30 percent in the third decade 33 percent. in that after 81 91 there is some decline, but what is noticable is that the gap between the growth of Indians and Muslims Indian Religionists and Muslims in 51 was only of 3 percentage points. the gap noise off nearly 10 nearly 8 percentage points, until they didn’t to nearly 10 percentage points and in relative terms this is as big as this because if you that they are going something like 50 percent more than the Indian Religionists even now. And, here also in fact here they were increasing some 40% more than the Indian Religionists.

Now they’re rising 50 percent more than the Indian Religionists so this gap. this is only graph of the growth rate of the Muslims and growth rate of Indian Religionists. the growth rate of Indian Religionists start going down from 71 81 and it’s sharply coming down. growth of Muslims had gone upto it was content slicing had gone up to 33 percent. it has started declining but this gap remains very why it is unlikely to be breached any time, it doesn’t look like that it would be. there’s another way of looking at this, to look at the number of children per hundred of population for different communities. And, in 2001 Indian Religionists the number of children per hundred of population was less than 16 and it was 18.74 for the Muslims. which was about near less than three more in 2011 is 13.14 for Indian Religionists and it is 16.43 for the Muslims. the cap is more than three children and this has this has been only rising this has not been getting breached per hundred of population. how many of them are children of age zero to six?. now if I look at this for different states the difference becomes very striking. in India there are 13 children in the Indian Religionists per hundred of population and 16 for the Muslims, in Haryana is 12.70 and 21.77 it’s both this is extraordinarily big difference.

For Jammu and Kashmir it is 12.5 and 18, for Assam it is 12 and 19, West Bengal is 10 and 15. Kerala which is supposed to be a very advanced state there the number of children is very low it is nine for Indian Religionists and it’s low for the Muslims also it is 14.4., but, the difference is about about six children. And, here it is in Nagaland it but these are small numbers so let’s not the number of people there is small. So, this the gap between the growth of the Muslim population and that of the Indian Religious doesn’t seem to be bridging, in spite of what the demographers keep telling us that always that happens at least at this stage. And, even amongst the most demographically most at one stage where of Kerala there also the gap remains very high. this is another piece of data which has become available that Kerala keeps its records of life live births and deaths very well, it is one of the states which keeps its records very well. So, I looked at their 2015 data and in the number of children number of births in 2015, of the total of number of births in 2015 in Kerala 43 percent were Hindu 41.45 percent were Muslim, while the population of Muslims was only to 26 percent so that is the kind of gap you found.

Incidentally, this one of the retired DGPs mentioned this in one of his interviews, mentioned this in one of his interviews that this seems to have happened and he was prosecuted for having said a thing like that, and though he kept saying that this is the government numbers, is not my numbers. this is the similar number for Jammu and Kashmir. oh it can’t be done easily because if you just take half of them are women that the case can’t be done I didn’t want to do TFR (Total Fertility Rate), no don’t want to no okay but in TFR if you want to go by that most of the very large number of  Indian states the TFR is below 2.1. now for the Indian Religionists which is below the replacement rate okay I think. we can discuss this now share of different communities in live births in J&K this is not their their birth and death registers, wouldn’t be that good. this is from the from the census, census gives the number of births that happened the previous year. when they do the census they also give the number of births that happened the previous year. So, this I was surprised  what is happening there, because in 2001 the number of births, live births of the Hindus were 47,000 and of Muslims 1,16,000 in 2011. it is not 2011, the year before 2011 the number given in 2011 census the number of live births were 55,000 amongst the Hindus the growth of about 17 percent and number of births of Muslims was 2,13,000 to the reporting for such a growth of 84%. This, I don’t know how these things happen, this means a campaign of some kind but our journalistic instincts are not sharp enough to pick up these things and follow.

This is a map of the of the Muslims and Christians in India. So, Muslims are concentrated in this from this Jammu this Kashmir and then this will be Western UP. from this onwards all this Eastern belt including West Bengal and crossing over into into Assam, that’s where the Muslims are including this Cachar area. this district wise this district wise this is a dynamic map these actual numbers is not there. And, Christians are here they are in this central India in the area around Ranchi, but also we’ll talk about it also in Odisha Kandhamal and Gajapati area in large numbers, and of course Christians are there in Kerala and and Kanyakumari part of it, and this will be Goa and this is  South Kannada districts which is also becoming Mangalore and that area is becoming. but we’ll go I am just showing you an overview. we will go region by region to the extent we can find time, but to give an idea of the total 17.22 crore Muslims in India, 9.62 crores are in that eastern belt of UP Bihar Assam West Bengal Jharkhand, and 4.2 crores are in Tamil Nadu Kerala Maharashtra Andhra Pradesh Karnataka, and about a crore in in Jammu and Kashmir of the total`

So you can see that the middle India Central India is there not many Muslims in that area. there were many Muslims in the in the Northwest and Northern areas which is because of the partition. they have their total Christians counted in 2011 are 2.78 crores of which whom Northeast has
0.78 crows, Tamil Nadu and Kerala have 1 crore, and this Central India where they have invested a great deal of effort has only 0.37 crore. if this account is correct and this is a very sore point amongst the world Christians that we have invested so much but this is a this this is a very sore point amongst them, that we we have invested great amount of resources in this region to convert the tribals of central India and they do not seem to have agreed. this is Jammu and Kashmir,
so of course Kashmir Valley is 96 percent Muslim and Jammu also is 33 percent Muslim and this is what is Valley. well there were some Hindus in the valley before all this event happened
and their numbers were rising. Hindus and Sikhs after the the current from around 81 onwards the number of Muslims Hindus and Sikhs there has been declining very sharply. there is no question of growth, but the number of Muslims in the Jammu region has been rising very systematically over the last two three decades, and now they form about one third of the population of Jammu. this is the in fact this is the thing to show that there are really no Hindus left in the in Kashmir Valley.

The census has counted this 1,68,000 Hindus in the valley, out of which in this 1,68,000 there are only 15,000 women, and only 4,000 or 5,000 children. so and out of 168,000 156,000 are way illiterates 148,000 are workers. so what this indicates is, there are really no Hindu families in in valley left. there are no women almost no children is only people Hindus were employed there gone to work there that they have been counted. And, this is the usual graph of this so this is all adult males that you see you don’t see any women and you don’t see any children you don’t see any old men amongst the Hindus of of Valley. So, Valley has been cleansed there’s no there is numbers that the like census shows is number of workers they’re gone from outside there’s no Hindus there. Next, I will this is Haryana and what I want you to concentrate is only on this line that Muslims in Haryana. Haryana is of course one of the places which faced the brunt of partition like Punjab and nearly all the Muslims had to leave from Haryana except in the Mewat district. there was some decision that the that the southern part of Haryana south of Delhi will not allow the transfer of populations. But, in 71 there were only 4 percent Muslims in Haryana they were a 4 percent in 81 also. they started rising, and, between 81 2011 they have gone up from 4 percent to 7 percent. now, this is something which several Sociologists should study that this is small region and till 81 there’s nothing happening there, and suddenly they have this kind of growth, and this is I think a glaring enough sociological and demographic fact to be studied systematically be by our great institutions.

Now look at the Mewat district, which has been it was part of Gurgaon Mewat district which in 81 I think or 2001 or 3 I think, in 2003 it was separated as a separate Muslim majority district. 81 this district has 66 percent population of Muslims in three decades the district has 79 percent population of Muslims. And, now this if it happens when natural growth it will be very interesting, but there’s something more than natural growth happening there. And, what worries me but pains me is that why don’t our we invest so much in these universities and social scientists or scholars I know people working on Mewat they look at all aspects of Mewat of the poverty of Muslims, about the illiteracy of Muslims, about about the historical iniquity that has been visited upon them all kinds of papers I see. But, they don’t see any paper on what is happening to that religious demography of this region and how is it proceeding, what are the details of it, what is happening in the micro-level, how many Hindus have left Hindu houses are look vacant in Ferozepur? Jhirka for example and those are the kind of questions which need to be studied. Because, this is not something small that has happened before uprise and we won’t ignore it the after Haryana the that map I showed the major concentrations is is then Western UP. I will not define that area
this is from Saharanpur to Meerut area of Western UP. they were 15 percent Muslims in this area 41. there was not much transfer from this area transfer of population of this area. they are from 15.43 they came to 14.28 percent in in 51 because of partition. But, you should have expected a much larger change, they just stuck on they ask for partition this was one of the regions from which the demand of the partition would have been most most intense but they didn’t go and there was not much change up to 71 not even up to.

After 81 you see their numbers rising from 16 percent to 19 percent proportion rising in in just about three decades. So, actually aspects of partitions on the Muslim community do persist for about three decades. it makes them actually it was traumatic experience for them also, for those who left were left here it was equally traumatic,  for Hindus who came from there but even for those Muslims who were left behind their best of their men would have left the most their leaders wouldn’t be no more here and it had become a community in distress. But, that seems to have passed by 1981 and you see it in figures now in this the this area of Uttar Pradesh, I have done this, I think this is so many districts all these now I have more than 30 percent Muslims. some of these have, this Rampur is now a Muslim majority district. But, if you go Taluk wise which also have done somewhere then there’ll be very many Tehsils which now are Muslim majority in this area. So, that was whole of UP but if I take this small pocket of only these three these disticts then the Muslim growth in this is from 29 percent to 40 percent. in this and this also always seems to happen after 1981 from 33 to 40 they’re coming in this area. there’s in Eastern UP pocket around Bahraich Shrawasti Balrampur Siddharthnagar as you can see in that map but that seems to be no more contained the growth is more contained there. Uttarakhand is very interesting that Uttarakhand was formed in 1991 or 2001, in 1991 there were 10 percent Muslims 2001 it became 12 percent, 2011 it became 14 percent, and if you look at the Kumaon region alone  they were continuously rising after 71, they were 10 percent in 2001, and 12 point 12 percent so Kumaon region from 61 to 2011 more than doubling of their and Udham Singh Nagar district in the last two last decade itself it’s acquired about 2 percentage point extra.

So, this Haridwar Dehradun Udham Singh Nagar and some districts above that the Muslim presence is extremely intense. This, anyway is a continuation of the belt I’m talking about. this Haridwar is a continuation of that belt. this is a this is not about UP will come about UP but in general in India Muslims are more urban then rural in general. not everywhere if you take India as a whole the Hindus are 29 percent, of the Hindu population, 29 percent is urban of the Muslim population 40 percent is urban and of Christian population 40 percent is urban. in Rajasthan the urban ratio of Muslims much higher there nearly half of them are urban compared to 20 percent less about 22 percent Muslims same in UP about 18 percent UP Hindus are urban but 37 percent of the Muslims are urban there is a concentration of Muslims in Chhattisgarh 22 percent Hindus are urban and nearly 70 percent of the Muslims are urban. this in West Bengal and Assam Muslims are more rural than urban actually in both of them because we know what there is a in those areas it is the peasantry which is which is Muslim in these areas the artisans and the traders were poor Muslims. but in the West UP it will be both peasantry and artisans and traders be so I showed you that there is a higher presence of Muslims in the urban areas in UP. you can see it in in UP in Maharashtra every where, you can seen in the number of towns that are Muslim majority in West UP alone that pocket. I was saying there are 11 towns 11 census towns where Muslims are more than 90 percent, and there are another 20 where Muslims are 80 to 90 percent, another 24 where they’re 70 to 80 percent in all there are 103 towns out of total of 154 where Muslims are a majority.

Town is census town no no there is not such a simple population it it also counts the ratio of people who are dependent on agriculture and the change in towns is much sharper than the total change that I was talking about in Kairana. for example about which we heard much in 71 there were 59 percent Muslims and now they’re 80 percent 81 percent, in Kandhla there were 51 percent and now there’s 70 percent, and this is only four decades they’ve then they’re 59 percent in 70 percent. Pur Kazi it is a small town near Saharanpur 48 percent to 76 percent, Baghpat from 41 to 60 percent, in this town’s the growth of Muslims seems extremely high. And, this not only in UP there will be several towns of Karnataka, several towns of Maharashtra, where you see extraordinary growth of Muslims in towns in Madhya Pradesh. now to be coming to Bihar, and Bihar I want to talk about because, in Bihar there were 15 percent Muslims they became 12 percent in 41 to 51 and they have been slowly rising 17 percent now. they are there but here you don’t see that explosive growth that you seen lots of UP. And, I showed you the gap between the Muslim growth and the Indian Religionists growth here in Bihar. you see the gap between the growth rate of Muslims and Indian Religionists has really narrowed this is a one of the unusual
places. it was very wide it was very wide it was wide even in this year, particularly
in 2001 that you see a narrowing of the gap in fact in Bihar you see a large number of all these places, where Muslims have grown. all these pink ones where Muslim may have grown slower than Hindus during the last decade. Now, I can speculate on the reason that you’re asking my feeling is I may be wrong that this is happening, this is a kind of Hindu reaction or Hindu resurgence and I in the previous census you saw it happening in the region around Gorakhpur where the Muslims weren’t actually declining Gorakhpur Deoria that region and this census you see it happening in a very large part of Bihar where the share of Muslims is actually coming down the growth rate is lower than that of this is in much of Bihar but not in this area.

This Kishanganj Purnia katihar which is their area of concentration. there they have grown faster than that, so I prefer to see is some kind of Hindu reaction to this. what is going on some Hindu resurgence so this I’m just saying that there seemed to be a restoration of balance in 15 districts. in there has been 15 districts of Bihar Hindu growth is higher than that of the Muslims during the last in the first time. I’m seeing such a vast area where Hindus have grown faster than but again this is something based on all India data it always requires micro level studies to confirm these things, and that micro level studies should be the responsibility of their institutions. but what was Purnia region there as I said there is no let-up Purnia is one area of Purnia now which is divided into several districts it is a single Purnia region there were 41 percent Muslims there they became 32 percent in 51 and they went up to 37 in 61 already. after that the growth has been continuous but in 2001 2011 they have gained more than 1.5 percentage points. So, the phenomena as I said of higher growth of Hindus compared to Muslims is not true about regions where they are in a high concentration. where the Muslims are in Jharkhand the there were only 8 percent Muslims 8.3 in 51 also they have now become 14.5 which is not small change which is a large change
in the particularly in the Santhal Pargana region which again is now divided into various districts the Muslims have gone from 9.4 percent in 51 to 22.7 percent percentage level.

But this is this is some serious this region because here you start coming to the chicken neck area. where there is  very large explosive growth is the beginning of the chicken neck area so then you come to West Bengal whole of West Bengal you have gone from 19 percent to 27 percent. And, if you take the belt of Dinajpur Maldah Murshidabad the growth is from in Dinajpur from 29 percent to 41 percent, in Maldah from 37 to 51 percent, Murshidabad from 55 to 66 percent, Birbhum 20 from 26 to 37, so this is from 40 to 52 percent. this is the continuation of the chicken belt it’s all the border of Bangladesh when it sinks so this is explosive actually so if I take this Purnia Santhal Pargana Dinajpur Murshidabad belt together which then there were 37 percent in 41, 30 percent in 51, and now they’re 45 percent this is very lare. see so this this area West Bengal that region which goes next to Bangladesh and this the Purnia area and this then through Bangladesh goes  into continuously with the said Assam. I think this is now as a whole Muslim majority and this of course this part around is of course Christian majority. so this what is called the Purvanchal of India there Hindu or Indian religionists are already in a majority in a minority. in fact I showed this when I did this in 2001 to a very senior political scientist, he looked at it he got very worried he says that when something like this happen, you see a map of this kind then very strong civilizations very capable civilization will find it very difficult to maintain this area within their domain. And, we are not a strong civilization as of now then we show you Assam there were 15 percent Muslims in 1901 that 34 percent now. Assam of course the from 15 percent to 25 percent if that happened between 1900 1941 this is the systematic movement of peasantry from parts of what is now Bangladesh into Goalpara religion of Assam, that the British organized in the trick they gave them lands they every census report on that period gives numbers of people brought and the amount of land distributed in that period. after 41 you see this number remains steady up to up to 71 and also to an extent up to 71 certainly it is 25 percent 24.5 percent even in 71. But, then it starts rising it became 26 in 81, 28.4 in 91, 30.9 to 2001 and 34 percent now. So, this 81 71 81 seems to be a transition point for the Muslims in India. what caused it I think both historians and sociologists should study Assam. now of course this region this region is largely Muslim majority and so is this region all these white ones are majority so this and this is the most fertile part of both this this the Barak Valley and this is the this is the Brahmaputra Valley part the most fertile parcels so this is the main region which has now become Muslim. Goalpara Kamrup Darrang Nagaon if we look at the total they were 212 thousand Muslims there now it is about 84 lakh Muslims in that region alone percentage there were 14 percent in 1901 and there 44 percent now, and as I said from 41 to 31 percent is already in 41 then it remains there up to 71 and then you go to 45 percent in this next last last few decades. similar things are happening in the Cachar where Cachar was sufficiently Muslim in 1901 also and it become 42 percent it had declined to 38 percent and about 10 percent points they have gained in the last since independence. now let’s come to the we have this belt. as I said I’ve only talked if they take whole of the Eastern belt, now the Muslims are 45 percent there and if you add the Christians there, that part is the Indian Religionists are actually in a manner in the Northeast is not the Muslims, is the Christians who have taken over the Northeast. if Arunachal Pradesh too looks somewhat somewhat less populated by Muslims partly it is because the total by Christians partly, it is because Arunachal pradesh is very scarcely populated that’s why this map is looking like tha but let me show you the numbers if I take whole of Northeast excluding Assam and Tripura.

 the Hill areas of Northeast they’re only 2.68 percent Christians in 1901 gone up to 13.66 percent. they’re the way the counting was done 1931 in 41 census were 1.9 percent Christians  in whole of Northeast, in 51 you counted 31 percent and in now they have gone to 63 percent. But, the fact remains that much of the increase is between 30. even if you take this to the number much of the increase is at the eve of the partition, at the eve of Independence or after independence there’s the first and then it keeps rising. Meghalaya they were 15 percent in 31 almost none in 41 became 25 percent 51 and then slowly they have been rising and they have become 75 percent. So, Meghalaya is one state which is not become fully where the Scheduled tribes have not fully Christian, yet part of I reason is there is there are tribes within the Khasi’s within that area who are insistent on not becoming Christian, and and but even then the the percentage of Christians keeps rising from decade to decade they are 47 percent in 71, 53 percent in 81, 64 percent 91, 70 percent in 2001 and 70 and actually again this is something which should be studied by Indian sociologists. the situation of non Christian tribes in Meghalaya is something which is crying to be studied in detail and micro level. Mizoram was one state where Christianity came early partly because the education budget of Mizoram was handed over to the church by the British. So, this this is here in 31 nearly 50 percent were counted as Christian, and 41 of course there was hardly any, in 51 already by the time of Independence most of the Scheduled tribes of miserable had been converted and after that there is some decline. this decline is largely because Outsiders come in and also because there is this in the southern part of Mizoram, this districts are Buddhist districts Chakmas are there Chakmas came.

 Manipur of course is two, two state parts, there is the valley and there are the hill districts around it. And, valleys of course much more populated than the hill districts. So, that is why in 51 there were only 11 percent Christians and even now they are 41 percent. But, of the ST population 97 percent are Christians, 97 percent are Christians. So, many people to the extent it is possible is completely converted Manipur, also, has fairly large number of Muslims, and there has been continuous competition between this Pangal Meiteis and Meiteis that the regular Meiteis and the Muslim Meiteis. And, I was showing somebody that the Minorities Ministry, when it is Welfare Minister of India grants give separate grants for the Muslim Meiteis of ha the Pangal Muslims the Pangals Paangal Paanghal how do you pronounce i  but there is separate grant from the Government of India for the welfare of Pangals. Nagalandwas only 12 percent in 31, so the serious Christianisation started after independence, 46 percent in 51 and then it took some time for  Nagaland to become Christian fully Christian now of it’s 99 percent of the Naga scheduled tribes are Christian. Arunachal Pradesh is the is in state of the most concern, because ,we felt that Arunachal Pradesh is a region which we have seen, we have not allowed the Church to penetrate into that, are and that was true up to 81. until up to the time that Arunachal was NEFA and was ruled not as a civilian state it was largely free and after that you can see is 4 to 10 10 to 18 18 to 30 every decade but this 30 is a very large number, because of the ST population 41 percent of now are Christian. of the Nissi, Nyishis which are the main types of politically most most strong tribes 64 percent are Christians, of the Tangsa are about 60 percent are Christians, in the eastern part in Tirap region 95 percent Wanchos are Christian, and 67 percent of the Noctes that area are Christian. Adis who were supposed to not not easily convertible, now a quarter of the Adis are Christian. this this regions are the Donyi-Polos they are the largest group, in fact Donyi-Polo large amount of conversion is from people who call themselves Donyi-Polo. I can show that as the number of Christian rises the number of Donyi-Polo declines you can show from the.

Okay this is very strange, because, this is something which we all knew there is likely to happen, then we should make our best effort not but I think our best effort has not to prove to be good enough and now I only still tribes left there as Hindus are Mishmis. who will never convert and there are the Monpas who are and Khamtis Daflas Nyishis not and thing they don’t like that word, Dafla is considered a derogatory word Nyishi is ok, so Khamtis those who are Buddhist they have not converted in any large numners and of the this Tezu area the Mishmis of the Dibang Valley and Tezu area the Lohit area they have not converted. But, the rest are I think it’s total now and another census total, so Arunachal Pradesh should have happened but that current census shows in the event to Arunachal Pradesh, the stories ever heard are not worth listening to. now let’s quickly look at the other Christian areas so the Christians are outside Northeast. this this I believe is this is Simdega, got so this was what was Ranchi Simdega is the center of Ranchi and Simdega now has been separated from Ranchi. it’s a Christian majority district with 51 percent Christians but this is no older Christian concentration the rate of growth in Ranchi is not very high except that we have separated districts which are Christian majority, besides that there is not. right below that then there is this Sundergarh and the Sambalpur region where also there was some Christianity from earlier times. earlier times means from the time of the British but this area didn’t have Christians. this is Phulbani Baudh Kandhamal Gajapati now we this separated Gajapati district now I think 47 percent Gajapati is 40 percent nearly and Kandhamal is about 30 percent Christian. so this is this is perhaps amongst the recent times this is the area where maximum success Christian conversion has achieved, and this is continued this continuously rising and this will lead to this this actually not lead to but it’s already led to this becoming a continuous belt from Chhattisgarh to this Odisha this entire belt is of Christian influence.

then Santhal Parganas the area other area above that where the Christians have had the fairly good success, 1.5 percent 71 to 4.2 percent now. in this area Muslims also have a good rate of growth in this Ranchi Raigarh Sundergarh pocket that I was talking about, 51 there were 1.5 Raigarh this Raigarh it was at 1.51 percent and they are 10 percent now, in Ranchi they were 10 percent in about 15 percent now, in Sundargarh also from about 9.95 percent to 18.39 percent. But, much of the growth is earlier growth except very recent one Sundargarh in the last decade, this Kandhamal is the boast, in 71 they were 10 percent, in 81 9 percent and now they’re 20 percent, in Gajapathi there were 11 present and now they are 38 percent this is the area where the maximum conversion has taken place in recent times. Andhra Pradesh this there is much Christianity in this in 71 there was much Christianity. in Andhra Pradesh context there were the total 14 lakh or nearly 15 lakh this encountered in what  is now Andhra Pradesh and about 3 lakh Christians counted in what is now Telangana. binding of the Christians large percentage of them were within this richest part of I think this may be that most fertile part of not only Andhra Pradesh but of India Godavari and most of them were here most of them were here the coastal region. But, what is interesting was under this is 71 in 2011 you see the number going down to from about 15 lakhs to 6.8 lakhs and in  Telangana there is slight rise but if you put  them together they’ll be still be only  about 15 lakhs compared to about 20 lakhs at that time and in these areas you say see the numbers going down and this is a very peculiar rate and then 71 there is a rise and after that this continuous decline.

So this these are the districts where in Andhra composite they 71 the Christians became 4.19 percent and they 2001 there are only 1.3 percent in West Godavari, they became 7.3 percent and now they’re 2.77 in Krishna, they became 10.85 percent in Guntur, they became 14.6 percent and they’re already 1.84 percent now. So, you see everywhere this kind of thing  and we analyzed it a little, and  what we found is that if you put the percentage of Christians and the percentage of Scheduled Castes together and add then in composite Andhra, there were 17.8 percent Christians and Scheduled Caste together in 61 71 81 91 2001 that 18 percent listen is steady is only  variation between the SC and the so, what seems to be happening in very obviously in in Andhra Pradesh, is that this Scheduled Caste are converted once recorded, as converted and then they are not recorded in the census any further. they they recorded the Scheduled Caste once again here it is very obvious and you can see it district by district, say this is Guntur district they were 5 in 61 5.24 percent Scheduled Castes and 32.4 percent Christians and total becoming a little less than 90 percent and now there are 20 percent Scheduled Caste and 128 percent Christians. So, there is a fungibility between the other districts all similar I think. now in Tamil Nadu, Tamil Nadu is a state where there are about 6 percent Christians and 6 percent Muslims they were in 51, they were almost the same 4.7 percent Christians and 4.79 percent both have been rising and Muslims have reached near 6 percent and Christians have also reached near 6 percent. So, if you look at the map of Tamilnadu then you see Christians almost everywhere, some buzz presence everywhere and but particularly in Kanyakumari and and all of this southern coastal area but particularly Kanyakumari Tirunelveli Thoothukkudi where the church is very strong. Kanyakumari the rate of growth of there’s very been very high there were 30 percent 21, 33 percent 31, but in the last three four decades 81 is 39 percent, 91 is 42 percent, 2001 is 44 percent and 2011 is nearly 47. persent Kanyakumari will become Christian majority, has is perhaps already Christian majority and if you go to that beautiful coast where the temple of Kanyakumari is there is a very strategically located temple, you should see it is the devi looking across the sea and looking at everybody is coming that coast is all now you see only Church spires because Kanyakumari will be along that what is the district headquarter of Kanyakumari.

 you remember that Nagercoil, so Nagercoil is not as you are saying similarly Muslims are also almost everywhere, but much more in Vellore which was of course one of their Rajdhanis and in Nilgiris and in Ramanathapuram. much of the news that you get about problems with Christians Muslims and Christians Muslims and Hindus and Muslim aggresiveness that comes from this region and from Vellore. Kerala is also 26 present Muslim and 18 percent Christian. Hindus there are Indian Religionists are 55 percent. But, you should look at this graph in 1901 there were 17 percent Muslims in 51 also there were 17 percent in 61 also they were about the same, and then they start growing, and between 71and 2011 till it is a growth of 7 percentage points, and Christians were about 14 percent in 91 they were growing up to 61 between this day got 8 percentage point again and after that there is slightly declining so the first half of the century belonged to the Christians and the second half of the century belonged to the Muslims. Indian Religionists kept declining throughout and so they have come down from 70 percent to 55 percent. the loss of about 15 percentage points half they have lost to the Christians have they have lost to the Muslims. this and Muslims and Christians have divided more or less Kerala between them, this is the Muslim Kerala though they’re everywhere, but this is their the northern part, and this is the Christian Kerala Kottayam is of course the center of Christians in Kerala and this is another way of shrink the same thing you see the Muslims are and Christians down but I want to show this like Mewat Malappuram was carved out as a separate district I think 71 then there were 63 present Muslims there 64 percent and after that it is in continuously rising the district is become 70 percent.

now this I want to show a little more Kerala as we know is a literate state an advanced state so for the Hindus if you look at the literacy is 93.5 percent, which is also 93.3 percent for Muslims and it’s the 96.5 percent for Christians. But, so you don’t see much difference between the Muslims and Hindus in these parameters. work participation rate if you look at then of course Muslim women have much lower work participation rate, this is everywhere, urban ratio also Muslims have somewhat higher than the Hindus. But, if you look at the children per hundred, Hindus have less than 9 Muslims have and Christians they have almost the same as Hindus, Muslims have 14.4. so, this talk about that it is the literacy, it is the urbanization, it is which effects the fertility behavior, doesn’t seem to be borne out in Kerala it doesn’t seem to burn out in fact any of the states of India south of Narmada, when all of them women literacy amongst Muslim amongst Muslims is higher than the Hindu and fertility of Muslims is also higher than the Hindus. these are the age pyramids of Christians Hindus and Muslims as you see I so viewed all of them in terms of literacy at the same point but in terms of fertile the reproductive behavior, Christians now already are looking like an advanced population. population advanced on the fairly advanced on the population curve so the most of the this becoming state and this parent parameter is becoming almost like cylindrical and soon you will have many more older men then below, for the Hindus also it’s not like this but it is also very similar very similar but Muslims it will be not very different than what you will see in Haryana, in Haryana also will be very similar a pyramid of a of a society having much larger number of children and much fewer in the middle or the higher ages.

Dakshin Kannada is another place where Muslims are rising. they’ve gone up because this is the continuation of the Northern Kerala that’s why I’m pointing out they have gone up from 9 percent to 18 percent. this there they coastal region Goa also there’s a much growth of Muslims from 1.6. this continuation of Dakshin Kannada anyway say they have gone up from 1.61 percent to 8.33 percent. So, I come back to this map where some parts of this map are no more India and they have become outside the reach of the Indian Religionists, and this border belt is now having Muslim concentration many many parts, and if you go to the near border the concentration is much higher, and if you start from here and go eastwards then here the Indian Religionists are already less than 50 percent, and similarly this coastal region of Kerala and going up to Dakshin Kannada and Goa the Muslims and Christians together they constitute a fairly large proportion of population including Kanyakumari. here another way to look at, I’m just closing let me state this as I’ve written notwithstanding the continuing erosion of the share of Indian Religionists in specific pockets and regions which are not small, lying on the northern eastern northeastern southwestern borders of Indian Union, much of the country has remained largely immune to advance of Christianity and Islam.

I think that that should be granted that should be granted the way and if it is in a way an achievement Africa’s not been able to do, that Philippines was was conquered so yeah, south Korea South Korea is slightly different, Philippines yes, Indian religionists have maintained a dominant presence in almost all of northwestern western central and southern parts of Indian Union, these parts together comprise nearly two thirds of the area and three fifths of the population of Indian Union. in this vast region Indian Religionists have shown great great vitality. in some parts of the region they have even began to restore the imbalance caused by the relatively higher growth of Muslims and Christians. such vitality however has not helped them in defending their presence on the borders of the country where the efforts of the society to be effective necessarily need the vigilance and support of a state committed to protecting and preserving the civilizational identity pride and geniu of the nation we have so far failed to fashion such a state for ourselves.

Thank you [Applause]

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