Source: – @maidros78 / Twitter.
1) Here is a quick analysis of all seats that are <60% Indic [Hindu+Sikh+Jain+Buddhist+Tribal religions]. There are 46 such seats. Out of the 46 seats, NDA won 9 seats, while its opponents won 37 seats. In the following tweets, I will analyse the performance and causes.
— Shanmukh (@maidros78) May 26, 2019
2) Assam:Karimganj-BJP, Dhubri-AIUDF, Barpeta-INC. In Karimganj, which is 50-55% Muslim, Hindus voted en masse for BJP, while INC and AIUDF split the Muslim vote, with some native Muslims voting INC, as opposed to BD Muslims voting AIUDF. Muslim polarisation complete vs BJP.
— Shanmukh (@maidros78) May 26, 2019
3) Bihar: Ararea-BJP, Katihar-JD(U), Kishanganj-INC. In both Ararea and Katihar, where Hindus are ~55%, Hindu polarisation to BJP was total, while Muslims gravitated to its opponents. In Muslim majority Kishanganj [66% Muslim], INC won handily, DESPITE AIMIM cutting Muslim vote.
— Shanmukh (@maidros78) May 26, 2019
4) Goa: South Goa-INC. South Goa which is just above 50% Hindu went to the INC. South Goa is heavily Christian, BTW, not Muslim. All that appeasement of Christian padres seems to have done little good to the BJP.
— Shanmukh (@maidros78) May 26, 2019
5) Jammu and Kashmir: Anantnag-NC, Baramulla-NC, Ladakh-BJP, Srinagar-NC. BJP lost badly in 90%+ Muslim valley, and got mostly `migrant votes'. In Ladakh, which is ~55% Buddhist, they voted en masse for the party, DESPITE INC candidate being Buddhist with better credentials.
— Shanmukh (@maidros78) May 26, 2019
Jharkhand: Rajamahal-JMM. In Rajamahal, which is around 55% Hindu, the JMM won quite comfortably. It is perhaps worth remarking that even in 2014, Rajamahal had remained impossible for the BJP, and has been so for quite some time now. Something to learn there.
— Shanmukh (@maidros78) May 26, 2019
7) Kerala: Wayanad-INC, Kozhikode-INC, Malappuram-IUML, Ponnani-IUML, Chalakudy-INC, Ernakulam-INC, Idukki-INC, Mavelikkara-INC, Pathanamthitta-INC. Despite the vote that BJP got especially in Travancore-Cochin due to Sabarimalai issue, BJP remained a distant third everywhere.
— Shanmukh (@maidros78) May 26, 2019
8) Manipur: Outer Manipur-NPF. BJP was handily routed despite the infusion of all the unsavoury elements into the party [rationalised as `needed for the election']. Doesn't look like BJP has been able to make a dent in these regions.
— Shanmukh (@maidros78) May 26, 2019
9) Meghalaya: Shillong-INC, Tura-NPP. BJP candidates were routed in both the places. Weren't those tribals supposed to be above religious differences? Anyway, BJP candidates were routed and even in the Assembly elections, they only won in places which are Dharmic majority.
— Shanmukh (@maidros78) May 26, 2019
10) Mizoram: Mizoram-MNF. These gentlemen used to issue `quit Mizoram' notices to the Dharmics in the 1980s, blow up the barracks of the Assam Rifles, and also, hold `anti-idol worship day' every year. BJP candidate was again routed.
— Shanmukh (@maidros78) May 26, 2019
11) Nagaland: Nagaland-NDPP (NDA). This is technically a BJP ally and BJP didn't contest at all. This was a straight fight between NDPP and INC, with both INC and NDPP being purely Christian parties.
— Shanmukh (@maidros78) May 26, 2019
12) Tamizh Nadu: Kanyakumari-INC. BJP was totally routed here, with Ponnar getting only just over half the votes of his opponent. Christians and Muslims polarised en masse towards the INC.
— Shanmukh (@maidros78) May 26, 2019
13) Uttar Pradesh: Kairana-BJP, Muzaffarnagar-BJP, Bijnor-BSP, Nagina-BSP, Moradabad-SP, Rampur-SP, Sambhal-SP, Amroha-BSP. Again, Muzaffarnagar and Kairana are close to 60% Hindu and Hindu polarisation saved BJP, while others went to its opponents. Muslims polarised to SP-BSP.
— Shanmukh (@maidros78) May 26, 2019
14) West Bengal: Raiganj-BJP, Maldah Uttar-BJP, Maldah-Dakshin-INC, Jangipur-AITC, Beharampur-INC, Murshidabad-AITC, Krishnanagar-AITC, Basirhat-AITC, Joynagar-AITC, Birbhum-AITC. In Maldah Uttar and Raiganj, INC and AITC split the Muslim vote, while Hindus voted BJP.
— Shanmukh (@maidros78) May 26, 2019
15) The difference between Raiganj and Maldah Uttar that BJP won, and Krishnanagar and Birbhum that BJP lost is very interesting. All of them are 50-60% Hindu. Only when INC cut AITC's Muslim vote in former two could BJP win. But when AITC got the entire Muslim vote, BJP lost.
— Shanmukh (@maidros78) May 26, 2019
One more point that is worth making in the above analysis is that, of the 25 seats that are Indic minority, BJP won ONLY ONE seat [Karimganj] and that too, only because the Congress and AIUDF split the Muslim vote.
— Shanmukh (@maidros78) May 26, 2019
